Rakiya A.Muhammad
Amidst the growing peril of coastal flooding and the encroachment of saltwater driven by rising sea levels, a team of researchers from the Institute for Environmental Sciences (IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam has introduced DYNAMO-M, an innovative global agent-based model that promises to reshape our understanding of these pressing challenges.
It anticipates the reactions of farmers to the escalating threat, offering fresh perspectives on the obstacles encountered by 13 million farming households across the globe.
“DYNAMO-M could be the missing link in understanding one of the most urgent and complex questions of our time: what happens when our farmlands flood — and the farmers have to choose what to do next,” shares Asmae Ourkiya, Media and Communication Officer at the European Geosciences Union (EGU), a top organization for Earth, planetary, and space science research in Europe.
“The findings push the frontiers of climate risk modelling and offer actionable insights for governments, insurers, and global development agencies grappling with how to support frontline farming communities in a warming world.”
The model is set to be unveiled at the esteemed EGU General Assembly 2025, an internationally recognized conference dedicated to geosciences, taking place in the beautiful city of Vienna.
“Using decision-making logic rooted in discounted expected utility (DEU) theory, DYNAMO-M doesn’t just forecast physical impacts — it simulates real human choices: stay and absorb losses, adapt with salt-tolerant crops and elevated homes, or migrate inland,” Ourkiya elaborates.
“These decisions play out year by year, crop by crop, from 2020 through 2080, covering 23 major food crops in flood-prone areas worldwide.”
The lead researcher, Kushagra Pandey, remarks, “Rising seas are forcing a choice: to remain, to adapt, or to migrate.”
As rising salinity and floodwaters continue to devastate crop yields and diminish farming income, DYNAMO-M identifies hotspots of future migration, with vulnerable coastal regions in Florida, New York, Oregon, Japan, China, the Philippines, and Italy poised to experience significant shifts in population and land use.
The team reveals that the model distinctly emphasizes regions found within one-in-one-hundred-year floodplains, which face heightened vulnerability.
Yet, it is not solely a tale of despair and dislocation.
The team conducted tests on insurance schemes and government support policies within the model, uncovering that strategic interventions could markedly alleviate the urge to migrate, enabling communities to remain and flourish even in the face of rising tides.
The researchers note small subsidies can greatly improve adaptive capacity and lessen migration prompted by rising sea levels.
